Handicapping American Idol

OK, everybody the wait is over. It’s time for El Presidente’s American Idol preview.  Now for those of you who are new to the Stool, let me give you a little history lesson.  I have successfully picked the winner of American Idol before the first elimination show has even aired 5 out of the last 6 years. I’ve often said that God gave me three gifts in life.  The first one is the ability to get a great parking spot under any circumstance.  I’m telling you that I could get a spot right in front of Giacamo’s on Hanover Street at 8pm on a Friday night if I need to.  The second gift is the ability to spot a bad fashion trend before I fall victim to it.   I was the guy in middle school who never pegged my jeans.  I just knew it looked stupid.   And finally I can spot the American Idol winner a mile away. 

Now I’m not saying that I’m proud of any these natural born abilities, but it is what it is.   Anyway, last year was the first year I didn’t correctly pick the winner as I had Chris Richardson and I think he came in 5^th or something.  But he did bang LC from the Hills during the show so that has to count for something.   Plus, I had Blake coming in 2^nd which he did, but whatever.  The streak had to end sometime right?   Anyway, this year I’m looking to bounce back with a vengeance and start a new streak.  So without further ado, here is my 2008 American Idol preview.

Colton Berry 100-1

 Colton was the last guy to make it into the Final 24.  His quote on Americanidol.com is “hey, girl, hey.”    What the fuck is that?   I think I could find 5 guys who live in Abington who would have a better chance than Colton Berry.   Last one in, first one out.  That’s the way it goes.

Jason Yeager 100-1

I don’t like anything about this guy.   He was wearing clothes about 10 sizes too small during Hollywood week, but he’s not in good shape.  Also, what’s the deal with that skunk stripe in his hair?  Dude, you’re 28 years old.  Act like it.   He’ll be one of the first three guys to hit the road.   Book it.

Danny Noriega 80-1

This kid is either going to be Clay Aiken or just another awkward gay dude who gets bounced early.   I’m going with bounced early.

Brooke White 55-1

This has to be the oldest looking 24 year old on the planet right?   She looks like she’s at least 39.     But she cries like she’s 8 years old.   I mean this chick was crying right through auditions all the way through Hollywood.   She can definitely sing but she is just way too much of a Plain Jane to be the next American Idol.  She may end up with a career as a lounge singer, but kids don’t want to vote for people who they think are on Medicaid.

David Archuleta 40-1

There are always a couple people who just piss me off during American Idol- guys I just want to punch in the nose.    David Archuleta is one of those guys.   I already know he’s going to hang around for a couple of months.    He’s never going to be a threat to win the thing and I’m going to be forced to change the channel every time he sings.  Total waste.

Daniel Hernandez 36-1

Blah. There is nothing worse than being blah in American Idol. You better be pretty, orca fat, ultra dorky or something. You need to stand out from the competition. David Hernandez is the guy from high school whose name you can’t remember at your reunion.  Even his name is forgettable.  

Garrett Haley 35 -1

How is it possible that I have no idea who this kid is?    I think his hair will keep him around for a couple weeks, but it can’t be a good sign that I can’t remember somebody with such a distinguishable hair cut.   

Log in or join MyIDOL here to add friends!

Ramiele Macrowon Malubay 32-1

 Very cute Asian chick.    But she’s way too shy.   You just can’t have a shy personality and expect to win American Idol.   You need to be backstabbing the shit out of people backstage and spiking people’s drinks.  I just don’t see Ramiele having that killer instinct.   She reeks of middle of the pack.

Alaina Whitaker 30-1

Okay the first thing I do when handicapping American Idol is I look at all the contestants and rule out the ones that I can’t remember from Hollywood week or the auditions.  There is nothing worse in American Idol than being forgettable and Alaina Alexander is forgettable.  She is the classic midmajor.   I have no idea whether she can sing or not and frankly it doesn’t really matter, does it?

Chikezi 28-1

I think it’s a little bit premature to be going by one name already, don’t you?   Relax, dude.  You’re another typical midmajor.  You could get bounced in the first round or you could win a couple games and make it to the Sweet 16.  Either way nobody is going to remember you when Final Four Weekend rolls around because you’ll be long gone by then.  

Joanne Borgella 23-1

 The token fat black chick.   Granted she’s about a billion times prettier than past token black fat chicks, but there's one every season.    And they follow the same path every year.  They start out real strong and then start to fade when American Idol starts taking away the food.   By mid season they’re a shadow of their former selves.    No reason to think this story will turn out any differently.

Amy Davis 20-1

One of the hotter contestants in American Idol this year.   I haven’t totally decided what I think about her face yet but her body is legit.   I think she knows her only chance to survive is to shake her ass so it will be interesting to see how much she degrades herself.   But unfortunately for her I think she could blow Simon and it still wouldn’t matter.  Her voice just isn’t that good.

Robbie Carrico 19-1

 I like Robbie.  He’s one of the few guys on the show this year where I’d think about buying his CD.   Or at the very least buying one song on iTunes.    But guys like him just never make it that far.    And I don’t see that changing this year.  He can sing, but he’s clearly a middle man.    Not going to be the first guy out but when it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders he’ll fall by the wayside.

Asia’h Epperson 18-1

The judges love this chick.  Her dad passed away a day before the auditions (Unless she’s pulling a Johnny Fairplay which would be brilliant) and her mother and her did the Soulja Boy Dance on people when she made it into the final 24.   So while I don’t love her voice, her story and her personality make her a shoe-in for the final 12.

Jason Castro 14-1

 I don’t know what to say about this guy. I barely remember him singing in the auditions at all. I do remember when the judges told him he made the Final 24 because it looked like he could care less.   He could be a sleeper because he’s going to go with the Reggae look which will separate him from the field. This kid is an absolute wildcard. I could see him being on of the first guys bounced but a top 10 finish may not be out of his reach. He is the one dark horse in the field.

Alexandrea Lushington 11-1

There is always a version of Alexandria Lushington in every year of American Idol.   This is the chick who is arguably one of the best singers/performers in the entire group.  Yet, she just doesn’t capture the public’s imagination.  She’ll sail through the early rounds and people will be shocked when she is eliminated around the top 8.    But it really shouldn’t be a shock because while everybody likes her, nobody loves her.  Therefore while everybody is voting for their favorites she gets lost in the shuffle and bounced in what people will call the most controversial elimination ever.   But don’t worry, these chicks always land on their feet and end up with a career after Idol.

Kady Malloy 10-1

It’s not a good sign when you’re very attractive and I don’t really remember you from auditions.  Luckily for her this year's draft was weak at her position so she may be more valuable than in years past. And make no mistake, her position is sexpot.  
Face alone gets her in at 10-1.    

Luke Menard N/A

I’m not even going to handicap “Luke Menard” for two reasons.  First of all his name isn’t Luke Menard.  It’s Luke Perry. Second of all Luke Perry is like 40 years old and therefore ineligible for this competition. Sorry Dylan. Find somewhere else to revive your career.

Kristy Lee Cook 9-1

Favorite Quote: "Rope it, ride it, wrestle it, cowgirl it."

I’m real interested to watch Kristy Lee Cook this season.   She could be a dark horse.  She is an absolute smokeshow.   She’s about 100 times better looking than Carrie Underwood was when she was on American Idol.  Mix in the fact that her quote gave me a hard-on and there is a chance this chick will mix her sex appeal with some of that country singing shit to make a run at the title.  Don’t sleep on her.

Carly Smithson 8-1

In the history of American Idol I think this is the first foreigner ever to invade American soil.   Smithson is straight off the boat from Dublin, Ireland.  And while that may help her carry the vote in South Boston, it won’t help her win this competition. But her voice is the real deal.  In fact, the judges have already pretty much said that they think she has the best voice in the entire field.  But the great equalizer for Carly will be her boyfriend who has tattoos all over his face.   If she can keep him off camera for the entire season than she has a chance to take the American Idol belt back to Dublin.    But eventually I think we’re going to see him sitting in the crowd scaring the shit out of people and then it will only be a matter of time.  Little boys, little girls and Jerry Thornton don’t vote for chicks that date scary people.

As a side note I think you should have to be an American citizen to win American Idol so I’ll be firmly rooting against this chick.

Seyesha Mercado 5-1

Probably top to bottom the hottest chick in the competition this year. In fact, she may be the most talented hot chick ever in the history of American Idol.  And in some other years I think she probably would have had a legitimate chance to win the entire thing but this year it’s just too strong.   However a top 5 finish is definitely not out of the question.

Amanda Overmyer 4-1

I don’t quite know what to think of Amanda.   I think she is one of those chicks that is going to be a superstar regardless of what happens in American Idol.  Whenever I handicap the field the first question I ask is- would I buy a CD from this person?    And without a doubt, Amanda Overmyer would be the first person I’d want a CD from on this season.  But that doesn’t usually spell victory.  It spells final 5 or 6 and then a shocking upset.    Bottomline is I don’t know who is going to vote for this chick.  She’s not going to get the sexy vote.  She’s not going to get the little girl vote.  She’s not going to get the soccer mom vote.  And I can only call in so many times.    So she’s going to get caught in the numbers crunch eventually.  Plus she’s eventually going to get criticized for singing every song like Janis Joplin.   I’ve never understood this criticism.   You are what you are.    I don’t buy a Pearl Jam CD expecting them to sound like Elton John on a couple tracks.

Michael Johns 3-1

Michael Johns is a little bit too cocky.   A little bit too arrogant.   A little bit too good.    Every time he sang he was lights out.   Like a goddamn professional.     He’s clearly the man to beat.   I’d never buy a CD from him in a million years but there are definitely going to be lots of girls fingering themselves and then doing the stinky dial every Tuesday night after Johns performs.    I hope he doesn’t win, but the Vegas money is rolling in on him as we speak.

David Cook 2-1

The second I saw David Cook’s first audition I turned to the First Lady and told her we didn’t have to watch American Idol this year because this guy was clearly going to win.  Then he struggled a little bit in Hollywood and Michael Johns kind of stole his shtick as he did the David Cook better than David Cook.   In fact I was getting ready to declare Michael Johns the favorite right until I read Cook’s quote on the American Idol website.  

Favorite Quote: "Pain don't hurt." - Patrick Swayze in "Roadhouse"

Umm, if I’ve learned one thing in my 30 years of living and 6 years of American Idol handicapping is that you don’t fuck with people who quote Roadhouse.  They just have that little extra something on the inside that you can’t measure until the shit hits the fan.    When it’s down to the final 5 and the pressure is on and nobody has slept for days and everybody’s voice chords are sore, David Cook will go back to that pain don’t hurt quote.   And that my friends will be all the difference this year.